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The edge is for classic blackjack played with a single 52-card deck, where face cards count as 10s and aces as 11 (or 1 if the ace would cause the player to naturally bust). Gambling With an Edge. Gambling With an Edge is a weekly podcast from Las Vegas. Each week hosts Bob Dancer and Richard Munchkin interview a.
Gambling With an Edge. 780 likes 19 talking about this. Gambling With an Edge is a weekly podcast from Las Vegas. Each week hosts Bob Dancer and Richard Munchkin interview a professional gambler. Gambling with an Edge premiered on Feb 3, 2011 with hosts Bob Dancer and Frank Kneeland. Coincidentally, I was the guest on the first show, the first of three appearances. Six months later, Frank was replaced by co-host Richard Munchkin. Now, another six months later, Richard decided to leave the show and I will be assuming his spot.
Introduction
Gambling with an Edge premiered on Feb. 3, 2011 on KLAV radio (1230 AM) in Las Vegas. The show started with co-hosts Bob Dancer and Frank Kneeland. Later, Richard Munchkin replaced Frank, then I replaced Richard, and then Richard returned replacing me. This page contains podcosts of the shows during my one-year term as co-host and return visits.
Archives
- 09/25/14 — I'm the guest. The topic is the purchase of my Wizard web sites.
- 01/30/14 — I'm the guest. The topic is Super Bowl prop bets.
- 11/14/2013 — I'm the guest. The topic is half-point parlay cards.
- 09/26/2013 — I'm the guest. The topic is the new games at the 2013 Global Gaming Expo. Please note that my analysis of Amir Lehavot's financial position in the World Series of Poker was incorrect. You can use my poker tournament calculator to get the correct analysis.
- 06/27/2013 — Our guest is Kevin Lewis on the video poker scene in Reno.
- 05/09/2013 — Our guest is Brad Fredella, Manager of Gaming Analytics for United Coin Machine Company and the Gamblers Bonus group of properties.
- 03/28/2013 — I'm the guest.
- 01/24/2013 — Our guest is actress Angela Wyman.
- 01/17/2013 — Our guest is Ted Stratton.
- 01/10/2013 — Our guest is Stanford Wong.
- 01/03/2013 — Our guest is Mark Billings.
- 12/27/2012 — Our guest is Michael Konik.
- 12/20/2012 — Our guest is John Chang.
- 12/13/2012 — Our guest is Bob Nersesian.
- 12/06/2012 — Our guest is Eliot Jacobson.
- 11/29/2012 — Our guest is Bob Nersesian.
- No new show on Nov. 22, due to Thanksgiving.
- 11/15/2012 — Our guest is Willie Alison.
- 11/08/2012 — Our guest is Arnold Snyder.
- 11/01/2012 — Our guests are Staci Alonso and Chris Brune.
- 10/25/2012 — Our guest is Brian McAllister.
- 10/18/2012 — Our guest is 'your friendly announcer' Kelly Flynn.
- 10/11/2012 — Our guests are Holy Rollers Ben and Colin.
- 10/4/2012 — Our guest is Brian McAllister
- 9/27/2012 — Our guest is Mike Fields of Action Gaming/VideoPoker.com (part 2)
- 9/20/2012 — Our guest is Mike Fields of Action Gaming/VideoPoker.com (part 1)
- 9/13/2012 — Our guest is Nathanial Tilton. Richard Munchkin fills in for me this week.
- 9/6/2012 — Our guest is I. Nelson Rose.
- 8/30/2012 — Our guest is Steve Fezzik.
- 8/23/2012 — Our guest is Richard Munchkin.
- 8/16/2012 — Our guest is Buddy Frank, slot director at the Pechanga casino.
- 8/9/2012 — Our guest is Anne Freid-Lefton, the Tax Gal, who talks about tax strategies for professional gamblers.
- 8/2/2012 — Bob, Munch, and I talk about game show strategy.
- 7/26/2012 — Bob tells his story of how to cheat to get on Jeopardy.
- 7/19/2012 — Our guest is 'Hollywood' Dave Stann, author of Hollywood Blackjack.
- 7/12/2012 — Our guest is Ed Miller as Arnold Snyder fills in for me while I'm climbing Mount Whitney.
- 7/5/2012 — Our planned guest cancelled and we couldn't find a replacement on short notice, so Bob interviewed me.
- 6/28/2012 — Our guest is Stephen How of the web site DiscountGambling.net.
- 6/21/2012 — Our guest is Arnold Synder again. This week we focus on his sequel Poker Tournament Formula 2.
- 6/14/2012 — Our guest is Arnold Synder, who should need no introduction. We talk about his book Poker Tournament Formula.
- 6/7/2012 — Our guest is sports-betting expert Jason Been. Jason is the first guest to be on twice with Bob and me.
- 5/31/2012 — Our guest is Frank Kneeland, author of The Secret World Of Video Poker Progressives and original co-host of this show.
- 5/24/2012 — Our guest is Geoff Hall, inventor of Blackjack Switch, and advantage player in blackjack, poker, and backgammon.
- 5/17/2012 — Our guest is Roger Snow, vice president of product development at Shuffle Master.
- 5/10/2012 — Our guest is Bob Nersesian, attorney to the advantage players and author of Beat the Players.
- 5/3/2012 — Our guest is Nolan Dala, media director of the World Series of Poker.
- 4/26/2012 — Our guest is former host, Richard Munchkin. Richard tells some stories from his long and interesting career as a professional gambler.
- 4/19/2012 — Our guest is Mark Gruetze, gambling writer for the Pittsburgh Tribute-Review. We talk a lot about gaming stories in the news, the gambling scene in Pennsylvania, and cheating Internet software.
- 4/12/2012 — Our guest is Don Schlesinger, author of Blackjack Attack — Playing the Pros' Way. Don is another blackjack great to be on the show and we talk about a variety of topics from the Illustrious 18 to the current state of blackjack today.
- 4/5/2012 — Our guest is Beth Anne Uston, daughter of the legendary Ken Uston. We talk a lot about her father and his remarkable life.
- 3/29/2012 — Our guest is Michael Gaughan, a long-time Vegas casino owner, and current owner of the South Point.
- 3/22/2012 — Our guest is Stanford Wong. If my count is right, this is Stanford's fifth time on the show, which beats my record before co-hosting. The topic this time is sports betting.
- 3/15/2012 — Our guest is Shirley Dancer. Shirley is the often mentioned but seldom seen wife of Bob Dancer. Many of Bob's articles are based on events that happened to the two of them. Now we get a chance to meet the woman behind the stories.
- 3/8/2012 — Our guest is Blackjack Traveler. BT is a a world-traveling advantage player, in search of strong opportunities in parts often deemed dangerous. He shares some of his interesting stories from the road.
- 3/1/2012 — Our guest is Eliot Jacobson. Eliot is a Ph.D. mathematician and former advantage player. Now Eliot works as a consultant designing casino games, auditing Internet casinos, and advising on game security. On the show we ask Eliot about switching sides and the latest advantage plays, among other topics.
- 2/23/2012 — Our guest is Michael Bluejay. Michael's specialty is how to live on a tight budget, especially when visiting Las Vegas. He offers lots of advice on lodging, eating, and gambling in Vegas, among other topics. If the name seems familiar, Michael was my webmaster and advertising salesman for several years, and author of my page on Flip It.
- 2/16/2012 — Our guest is Dollie Wong, the cocktail waitress behind cocktaildoll.com and cocktaildoll.blogspot.com. Dollie doesn't hold anything back as she answers our questions about cocktailing, and turns the heat back on us at times. I hear the radio broadcast had to be censored several times but we have the original recording here.
- 2/9/2012 — Our guest is Josh Axelrad, author of Repeat Until Rich. Josh's book, and our interview, are about his experiences on a card-counting team, including a honest look at the dark side of that world. The show starts at the 1:05 point.
- 2/2/2012 — Our guest is handicapper Jason Been. We talk about the upcoming Super Bowl and other topics in sports betting. You may stop writing about the 'Name that Tune' question posed. The answer is Mahna Mahna.
The infamous 'no safety' bet discussed on the 2/9/2012 show. Thanks a lot, Tom Brady.
For shows prior to my debut, and after I left, please visit BobDancer.com. In particular, you'll find me as the guest on shows #1, 16, 40, and 51.
Are you an advantage player, who has something interesting to say, and want to be on the show? If so, write to me or Bob expressing your interest.
Written by: Michael Shackleford
Introduction
The house edge is defined as the ratio of the average loss to the initial bet. In some games the beginning wager is not necessarily the ending wager. For example in blackjack, let it ride, and Caribbean stud poker, the player may increase their bet when the odds favor doing so. In these cases the additional money wagered is not figured into the denominator for the purpose of determining the house edge, thus increasing the measure of risk. For games like Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em and Crazy 4 Poker, where there are two required initial wagers, the house edge is based on one of them only. House edge figures are based on optimal or near-optimal player strategy.
The table below shows the house edge of most popular casino games and bets.
Casino Game House Edge
| Game | Bet/Rules | House Edge | Standard Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baccarat | Banker | 1.06% | 0.93 |
| Player | 1.24% | 0.95 | |
| Tie | 14.36% | 2.64 | |
| Big Six | $1 | 11.11% | 0.99 |
| $2 | 16.67% | 1.34 | |
| $5 | 22.22% | 2.02 | |
| $10 | 18.52% | 2.88 | |
| $20 | 22.22% | 3.97 | |
| Joker/Logo | 24.07% | 5.35 | |
| Bonus Six | No insurance | 10.42% | 5.79 |
| With insurance | 23.83% | 6.51 | |
| Blackjacka | Liberal Vegas rules | 0.28% | 1.15 |
| Caribbean Stud Poker | 5.22% | 2.24 | |
| Casino War | Go to war on ties | 2.88% | 1.05 |
| Surrender on ties | 3.70% | 0.94 | |
| Bet on tie | 18.65% | 8.32 | |
| Catch a Wave | 0.50% | d | |
| Craps | Pass/Come | 1.41% | 1.00 |
| Don't pass/don't come | 1.36% | 0.99 | |
| Odds — 4 or 10 | 0.00% | 1.41 | |
| Odds — 5 or 9 | 0.00% | 1.22 | |
| Odds — 6 or 8 | 0.00% | 1.10 | |
| Field (2:1 on 12) | 5.56% | 1.08 | |
| Field (3:1 on 12) | 2.78% | 1.14 | |
| Any craps | 11.11% | 2.51 | |
| Big 6,8 | 9.09% | 1.00 | |
| Hard 4,10 | 11.11% | 2.51 | |
| Hard 6,8 | 9.09% | 2.87 | |
| Place 6,8 | 1.52% | 1.08 | |
| Place 5,9 | 4.00% | 1.18 | |
| Place 4,10 | 6.67% | 1.32 | |
| Place (to lose) 4,10 | 3.03% | 0.69 | |
| 2, 12, & all hard hops | 13.89% | 5.09 | |
| 3, 11, & all easy hops | 11.11% | 3.66 | |
| Any seven | 16.67% | 1.86 | |
| Crazy 4 Poker | Ante | 3.42%* | 3.13* |
| Double Down Stud | 2.67% | 2.97 | |
| Heads Up Hold 'Em | Blind pay table #1 (500-50-10-8-5) | 2.36% | 4.56 |
| Keno | 25%-29% | 1.30-46.04 | |
| Let it Ride | 3.51% | 5.17 | |
| Pai Gowc | 1.50% | 0.75 | |
| Pai Gow Pokerc | 1.46% | 0.75 | |
| Pick ’em Poker | 0% - 10% | 3.87 | |
| Red Dog | Six decks | 2.80% | 1.60 |
| Roulette | Single Zero | 2.70% | e |
| Double Zero | 5.26% | e | |
| Sic-Bo | 2.78%-33.33% | e | |
| Slot Machines | 2%-15%f | 8.74g | |
| Spanish 21 | Dealer hits soft 17 | 0.76% | d |
| Dealer stands on soft 17 | 0.40% | d | |
| Super Fun 21 | 0.94% | d | |
| Three Card Poker | Pairplus | 7.28% | 2.85 |
| Ante & play | 3.37% | 1.64 | |
| Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em | Ante | 2.19% | 4.94 |
| Video Poker | Jacks or Better (Full Pay) | 0.46% | 4.42 |
| Wild Hold ’em Fold ’em | 6.86% | d |
Notes
| a | Liberal Vegas Strip rules: Dealer stands on soft 17, player may double on any two cards, player may double after splitting, resplit aces, late surrender. |
| b | Las Vegas single deck rules are dealer hits on soft 17, player may double on any two cards, player may not double after splitting, one card to split aces, no surrender. |
| c | Assuming player plays the house way, playing one on one against dealer, and half of bets made are as banker. |
| d | Yet to be determined. |
| e | Standard deviation depends on bet made. |
| f | Slot machine range is based on available returns from a major manufacturer |
| g | Slot machine standard deviation based on just one machine. While this can vary, the standard deviation on slot machines are very high. |
Guide to House Edge
The reason that the house edge is relative to the original wager, not the average wager, is that it makes it easier for the player to estimate how much they will lose. For example if a player knows the house edge in blackjack is 0.6% he can assume that for every $10 wager original wager he makes he will lose 6 cents on the average. Most players are not going to know how much their average wager will be in games like blackjack relative to the original wager, thus any statistic based on the average wager would be difficult to apply to real life questions.
The conventional definition can be helpful for players determine how much it will cost them to play, given the information they already know. However the statistic is very biased as a measure of risk. In Caribbean stud poker, for example, the house edge is 5.22%, which is close to that of double zero roulette at 5.26%. However the ratio of average money lost to average money wagered in Caribbean stud is only 2.56%. The player only looking at the house edge may be indifferent between roulette and Caribbean stud poker, based only the house edge. If one wants to compare one game against another I believe it is better to look at the ratio of money lost to money wagered, which would show Caribbean stud poker to be a much better gamble than roulette.
Many other sources do not count ties in the house edge calculation, especially for the Don’t Pass bet in craps and the banker and player bets in baccarat. The rationale is that if a bet isn’t resolved then it should be ignored. I personally opt to include ties although I respect the other definition.
Element of Risk
For purposes of comparing one game to another I would like to propose a different measurement of risk, which I call the 'element of risk.' This measurement is defined as the average loss divided by total money bet. For bets in which the initial bet is always the final bet there would be no difference between this statistic and the house edge. Bets in which there is a difference are listed below.
Element of Risk
| Game | Bet | House Edge | Element of Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackjack | Atlantic City rules | 0.43% | 0.38% |
| Bonus 6 | No insurance | 10.42% | 5.41% |
| Bonus 6 | With insurance | 23.83% | 6.42% |
| Caribbean Stud Poker | 5.22% | 2.56% | |
| Casino War | Go to war on ties | 2.88% | 2.68% |
| Crazy 4 Poker | Standard rules | 3.42%* | 1.09% |
| Heads Up Hold 'Em | Pay Table #1 (500-50-10-8-5) | 2.36% | 0.64% |
| Double Down Stud | 2.67% | 2.13% | |
| Let it Ride | 3.51% | 2.85% | |
| Spanish 21 | Dealer hits soft 17 | 0.76% | 0.65% |
| Spanish 21 | Dealer stands on soft 17 | 0.40% | 0.30% |
| Three Card Poker | Ante & play | 3.37% | 2.01% |
| Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em | 2.19%* | 0.53% | |
| Wild Hold ’em Fold ’em | 6.86% | 3.23% |
Standard Deviation
The standard deviation is a measure of how volatile your bankroll will be playing a given game. This statistic is commonly used to calculate the probability that the end result of a session of a defined number of bets will be within certain bounds.
The standard deviation of the final result over n bets is the product of the standard deviation for one bet (see table) and the square root of the number of initial bets made in the session. This assumes that all bets made are of equal size. The probability that the session outcome will be within one standard deviation is 68.26%. The probability that the session outcome will be within two standard deviations is 95.46%. The probability that the session outcome will be within three standard deviations is 99.74%. The following table shows the probability that a session outcome will come within various numbers of standard deviations.
I realize that this explanation may not make much sense to someone who is not well versed in the basics of statistics. If this is the case I would recommend enriching yourself with a good introductory statistics book.
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Standard Deviation
| Number | Probability |
|---|---|
| 0.25 | 0.1974 |
| 0.50 | 0.3830 |
| 0.75 | 0.5468 |
| 1.00 | 0.6826 |
| 1.25 | 0.7888 |
| 1.50 | 0.8664 |
| 1.75 | 0.9198 |
| 2.00 | 0.9546 |
| 2.25 | 0.9756 |
| 2.50 | 0.9876 |
| 2.75 | 0.9940 |
| 3.00 | 0.9974 |
| 3.25 | 0.9988 |
| 3.50 | 0.9996 |
| 3.75 | 0.9998 |
Hold
Although I do not mention hold percentages on my site the term is worth defining because it comes up a lot. The hold percentage is the ratio of chips the casino keeps to the total chips sold. This is generally measured over an entire shift. For example if blackjack table x takes in $1000 in the drop box and of the $1000 in chips sold the table keeps $300 of them (players walked away with the other $700) then the game's hold is 30%. If every player loses their entire purchase of chips then the hold will be 100%. It is possible for the hold to exceed 100% if players carry to the table chips purchased at another table. A mathematician alone can not determine the hold because it depends on how long the player will sit at the table and the same money circulates back and forth. There is a lot of confusion between the house edge and hold, especially among casino personnel.
Hands per Hour, House Edge for Comp Purposes
The following table shows the average hands per hour and the house edge for comp purposes various games. The house edge figures are higher than those above, because the above figures assume optimal strategy, and those below reflect player errors and average type of bet made. This table was given to me anonymously by an executive with a major Strip casino and is used for rating players.
Hands per Hour and Average House Edge
| Games | Hands/Hour | House Edge |
|---|---|---|
| Baccarat | 72 | 1.2% |
| Blackjack | 70 | 0.75% |
| Big Six | 10 | 15.53% |
| Craps | 48 | 1.58% |
| Car. Stud | 50 | 1.46% |
| Let It Ride | 52 | 2.4% |
| Mini-Baccarat | 72 | 1.2% |
| Midi-Baccarat | 72 | 1.2% |
| Pai Gow | 30 | 1.65% |
| Pai Pow Poker | 34 | 1.96% |
| Roulette | 38 | 5.26% |
| Single 0 Roulette | 35 | 2.59% |
| Casino War | 65 | 2.87% |
| Spanish 21 | 75 | 2.2% |
| Sic Bo | 45 | 8% |
| 3 Way Action | 70 | 2.2% |
Footnotes
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* — House edge based on Ante bet only as opposed to all mandatory wagers (for example the Blind in Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em and the Super Bonus in Crazy 4 Poker.
Translation
A Spanish translation of this page is available at www.eldropbox.com.